Are prediction markets like Kalshi haram?

Yes, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are haram for the same reason betting is. You pay for a "contract" that pays out only if an event happens, and you lose your money if it doesn't. Calling it trading or a financial exchange doesn't change that it's a wager on an outcome, which Islam calls maysir (gambling).

What prediction markets actually are

On a prediction market you buy "yes" or "no" shares on a question: Will this candidate win? Will it rain in New York on Friday? Will a team win the final? If you're right, each share pays a fixed amount; if you're wrong, it's worth nothing. Prices move with the crowd's guesses, so the apps look like stock trading, with charts and order books. Some are regulated as financial exchanges in the US.

But regulation answers whether something is legal, not whether it's halal. Underneath, every contract is a bet: money moves from those who guessed wrong to those who guessed right, and nothing is produced or owned.

Why it counts as maysir

Scholars describe maysir as any deal where you put money at stake and either win the other side's money or lose your own, based on chance or an uncertain outcome. That fits a prediction contract exactly. Allah names gambling alongside intoxicants as something to avoid completely.

يَـٰٓأَيُّهَا ٱلَّذِينَ ءَامَنُوٓا۟ إِنَّمَا ٱلْخَمْرُ وَٱلْمَيْسِرُ وَٱلْأَنصَابُ وَٱلْأَزْلَـٰمُ رِجْسٌ مِّنْ عَمَلِ ٱلشَّيْطَـٰنِ فَٱجْتَنِبُوهُ لَعَلَّكُمْ تُفْلِحُونَ "O you who have believed, indeed, intoxicants, gambling, [sacrificing on] stone altars [to other than Allah], and divining arrows are but defilement from the work of Satan, so avoid it that you may be successful." Quran 5:90

It doesn't matter that you've studied the polls or follow the sport closely. Skill in guessing doesn't make a wager halal, just as knowing horses doesn't make horse betting halal. The same reasoning applies to lottery-style products. See Can I still buy lottery tickets as a Muslim?

How it differs from investing

When you buy a share in a company, you own part of a real business that makes products and profits, and your return comes from that activity. A prediction contract owns nothing. It's a zero-sum side bet: your gain is exactly someone else's loss. That's why halal investing in shares is allowed while event contracts aren't. See Can I invest in stocks as a Muslim?

The same applies to similar products sold under other names: binary options, "event trading" in broker apps, and fantasy contests where you pay an entry fee into a prize pool.

If you've already used them

Stop placing new bets and close the account. Scholars generally say winnings from gambling shouldn't be kept for yourself; give them away to charity without expecting reward. Turn to Allah in repentance and move on. If you find it hard to stop, use the app's self-exclusion tools and talk to someone you trust.

Key points

Prediction markets are bets on outcomes, whatever the app calls them.
Legal regulation doesn't make something halal.
Skill or research doesn't change the ruling.
Real investing owns assets; event contracts own nothing.

Tip: A quick test: if your money can only grow because someone else on the other side loses theirs, and nothing real is bought or built, treat it as gambling.

Are prediction markets like Kalshi haram?

What prediction markets actually are

Why it counts as maysir

How it differs from investing

If you've already used them

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